Leading world banks say we should get ready for a new recession shock. What does it mean exactly, and what investments might be the best place to stash your hard-earned money?

Recession Risk is Rising, Economists Say. Here's What It Means for Investors

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We all hoped that energy prices and overall inflation would fall this summer but then Russia invaded Ukraine. 

Since the war in Ukraine has started, prices for food, gasoline, metals, and other raw materials have risen sharply, dashing all hopes of inflation going down, at least for a while.

And, to make matters even worse, economists are now saying 

Should you be concerned about your portfolio in light of these warnings? 

Or is it worth taking a more upbeat approach?

Numerous theories attempt to explain when and how economic recessions occur. 

two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's GDP.

A business cycle that refers to the regular cyclical pattern of economic boom (expansion) and bust (recession).

As you can see, the recession is a tipping point of a business cycle when continuous economic growth reaches its peak and then reverses, becoming a continuous economic contraction.

slow or even negative growth in production.

a rash of business failures and sometimes bank failures.

social upheaval resulting from all this economic distress.

So even though recessions are temporary, the economic pain they cause can have major effects on an economy.

a loss of business and consumer confidence

. As confidence falls, so does demand. As a result, retail sales slow, producers cut back in response to falling orders, and the unemployment rate rises.

A loss of business and consumer confidence is one of key signals of a recession

Among other key causes are a stock market crash, high interest rates, food and oil shocks, and inflation.

And what could be one of the causes of a possible recession today? Apparently, it’s inflation again. 

According to Bank of America strategists,

 “Inflation causes recession and inflation is out-of-control”.

What countries risk falling into a recession? 

A growing number of analysts see a recession coming to at least 3 of the world’s largest economies:

Economists at Deutsche Bank were the first to say that the U.S. could sink into a recession in 2023.

“Our call for a recession in the U.S. next year is currently way out of consensus,”

 economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper said in their report last Tuesday. 

“We expect it will not be so for long.”

Bank of America warned that rising inflation could tip the U.S. into a recession: 

“Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming,” 

the bank’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, said.

And Goldman Sachs sees a 35% risk of recession in the U.S. in 2022, up from just 10% last year.

While Deutsche Bank doesn’t specifically see the U.K. falling into recession this year, it does suggest that the possibility of a recession is growing.

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, Sanjay Raja, explains: 

“We continue to think that the risk of recession remains on the rise. This is something we will be tracking very closely in the coming months. Consumer confidence data is already consistent with recessionary levels.”

 are one reason why the bank expects the U.K. economy to "flatten" by the end of 2022.

Germany could face a sharp recession if gas supplies from Russia were suddenly cut off, the country's leading economic institutes warned.

If gas supplies were to be cut off, the German economy would undergo a sharp recession," 

said Stefan Kooths, vice president at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

With mounting civilian deaths in Ukraine after Russia's invasion, Germany is now under pressure to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, as critics say the oil cash provides Moscow with vital funds to wage war.

But, apparently, Germany's gas reserves would only be enough to last until late summer or early autumn should Russian supplies stop now.

a looming recession risk in the U.S., U.K. and Germany represented by a picture of a cartoon man with briefcase sitting on a graph

Should investors worry about a possible recession?

In short, not really. Especially if their portfolios are well-diversified. 

Firstly, because we can’t know precisely when a recession could be coming. 

Secondly, it’s impossible to know for sure which asset classes will do well if it eventually shows up. 

There’s a general agreement, however that, during a recession, riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds tend to decrease, while gold and U.S. Treasuries usually go up.

For example, the Great Recession of 2008 boosted the price of gold, even though it fell in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. 

But, as the chart below shows, gold clearly outdid S&P 500 right after the crisis began.

The chart compares the historic behavior of gold and the S&P 500 Index between April 1968 and April 2012

Will gold act the same way if another economic squeeze unfolds? No one knows for sure. 

But one thing is clear: diversifying your portfolio and taking measured steps to control risk can help preserve your wealth and savings.

Gold offers several powerful advantages as a store of value. Discover why more and more investors are turning to this precious metal.

What are the advantages of gold compared to other investments?

A look at the strong changes in demand in the gold sector y-o-y.

A Shift in Gold Demand Trends

Good thing central banks can't print gold. 😉

21.9% Annual Inflation... and Counting

Despite slowing down, the frenzy around silver has kept prices up, and demand for physical bars and coins strong, while doubts over the state of the silver stocks emerge. Is Silver Setting the Stage for a Breakout?

Is Silver Setting the Stage for a Breakout?

We are thrilled to announce that our CEO Alessandro Soldati was invited for an open and lively discussion on a popular YouTube channel Frugalisme et Liberte Financiere.

How to Buy Physical Gold Online in 2022?

17/02/22: The European Central Bank could raise interest rates in 2022, the gold price goes up as tensions over Ukraine resurface, Switzerland lifts most Covid-19 restrictions. And more.

Weekly Digest: ECB Rate Hikes, Gold Up on Ukraine Tensions

Choosing between gold and silver: A comparison to help you decide which metal might be right for you.

Should You Buy Gold or Silver?

Reddit and the Wall Street Silver crowd are planning a new #Silversqueeze. With more coordination and hindsight, will they succeed in rising the silver price? 

#Silversqueeze 2.0?                         

The Federal Reserve’s inflation goals are getting risky and could cause the rate to overheat dangerously if they were to push it too hard.

The Fed’s Dangerous Game

Meet GOLD AVENUE CEO, Alessandro Soldati, in our first Q&A video session!

Q&A with our CEO - Alessandro Soldati

The Fed desperately wants higher inflation that would exceed its 2% target. Will the ECB follow the lead? It looks like it. 

Does the European Central Bank Want High Inflation?

24/02/22: Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the S&P is in a correction for the first time since the 2020 Wall Street plunge, gold hits a 20-month high. And more. 

Weekly digest: Ukraine Crisis, Markets Shaken, Gold’s Up

Russia’s decision to remove the US dollar assets from its sovereign wealth fund and partially replace them by gold boosts the yellow metal’s importance as a strategic asset.

Russia's New Move on Gold

After yet another central bank starts considering negative interest rates, we’re taking a look at how unlimited debt can impact physical gold investment.

Is Unlimited Debt Good for Gold?

World markets have taken a hit as the Russian invasion of Ukraine spooked investors around the globe. Here’s what you can do right now to protect your investment portfolio and gold savings.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: What Impact on Your Savings?

You probably noticed certain industries and communities aren’t bouncing back as quickly as others during times of recession or economic crisis. That’s what the K-shaped recovery is all about.

What the K-Shaped Recovery Means for Gold

03/03/22: Markets are on a wild rollercoaster ride, Eurozone inflation at a record high, Russia intensifies its invasion of Ukraine, gold proves itself as a safe haven. And more.

Weekly digest: inflation rising, Russia sanctions, gold gains

You want to start investing but you don't know where to start? Here is a beginner’s guide to investing.

How to Start Investing in 2023? Here's What You Need to Know

The #silversqueeze movement took the investment world by storm and has the potential of shaking up the silver market. Will it be here for the long term?

#silversqueeze

Here’s a rare sneak peek into one of the world’s biggest gold refineries. 

How Do You Make Gold Bars?

10/03/22: Gold and palladium hit a record high, oil records its worst day since November, Biden signs an executive order on crypto. And more. 

Weekly digest: Metals on the Rise, Oil Drops, Crypto Order

In 2021, central banks continued buying gold, with emerging countries stepping up as key net buyers. Do you wonder why? Here’s what you need to know.

Central Bank Gold Buying Explained

With inflation soaring in Europe and the U.S, learn how to navigate higher consumer prices from this great personal finance video from Sorelle Amore.

5 Ways to Protect Your Wealth From Inflation

17/03/22: The Fed has raised interest rates for the 1st time since 2018, one of Brazil’s biggest funds goes for gold, E.U.'s rethinking gas supplies. And more.

Weekly Digest: Fed’s 1st Rate Hike, Gold in Demand

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, investors rushed to gold, the world’s oldest safe-haven asset, pushing its price to a new record. Why did this happen? Here’s what you need to know. 

Investor Gold Demand is Booming Right Now: Here's Why 

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon possibly made the biggest monetary error in history. A video from Libre & Riche will tell you why.

All You Need to Know About the World’s Greatest Monetary Catastrophe

24/07/22: The U.K. hit by the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, Powell finally admits inflation is “much too high”, European stocks drop. And more.

Weekly Digest: Cost of Living Crisis, Inflation Problem

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate hike since 2018. What could this mean for the gold price? Here’s what you need to know. 

How Interest Rate Hikes Affect the Gold Price

31/03/22: European inflation soars to new heights, Russia resumes gold purchases, no breakthrough seen in Ukraine war despite renewed peace talks. And more. 

Weekly Digest: EU Inflation Runs Hot, Ukraine Peace Talks

It seems that the ongoing US presidential election has not changed the situation in the gold market so far as the macro backdrop remains quite favorable to the yellow metal.

Trump + Biden = Gold?

Do you want to buy gold bars but are not sure where to start? Here’s what you need to know to build your precious metals portfolio in a smart way.

How Do You Buy Physical Gold Bars? 

The backdrop of global inflation in the U.S. and Europe was already worrying. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is making the situation even worse, including sending gas prices soaring to record levels. Here’s what you need to know.

Here’s How Rising Gas Prices and Inflation Fuel Each Other

07/04/22: More and more people are worried about rising consumer prices, experts think the U.S. recession is inevitable, cryptocurrencies are facing some privacy issues. And more.

Weekly Digest: Inflation Worries, U.S. Recession

It looks like stagflation could be here soon. Here’s what you need to know to understand the economic phenomenon that stifled growth through the 1970s.

What Is Stagflation and Why Should We Worry About It?

14/4/22: U.S. inflation hit 8.5% in March, the highest since 1981, EU ban on Russian gas could spark a sharp recession in Germany, Ukraine peace talks “at a dead end.” And more.

Weekly Digest: U.S. Inflation at 40-Year High, German Recession Risk 

21/04/2022: The IMF cuts its global economic growth forecast, UN says the war in Ukraine could create a global food crisis “beyond anything seen since World War II,” Macron and Le Pen fight for the presidency. And more.

Weekly Digest: IMF Cuts Growth Forecast, Hunger Threat

If you are a parent, you probably want to find the best way to set your kids up for financial success. Here’s how your gold savings will help you start building their lifelong wealth.

3 Ways Gold Savings Can Benefit Your Children and Family

Easy is always right. Especially when it comes to buying precious metals. If you still don’t know what’s the easiest way to buy gold, you’re in the right place.

The Easiest Way to Buy Gold and Precious Metals

28/4/22: Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the Fed is set for more aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation, Musk seals the deal to buy Twitter. And more.

Weekly Digest: Russia’s Gas Cutoff, Musk’s Twitter Deal

If your children are the lucky ones to get a hoard of gold as an inheritance, there are 4 things you should do before passing it on to them.

4 Things to Remember When Buying Gold for Your Children

04/05/22: The Fed is set to fight inflation with the fastest rate hikes in decades, Fitch trims China’s 2022 growth forecast amid Covid-19 lockdowns, two Argentinian banks will allow crypto trading. And more.

Weekly Digest: Fed Rate Hike, Cuts to China’s Growth Forecast 

Here are the 4 handy tips you can immediately put into practice when buying physical gold for the first time.

How Do You Buy Gold? A Beginner’s Guide

Swissmint made history as they issued their first-ever 50-franc Vreneli gold coin on May 11, 2022, making a very special coin even more popular in Switzerland and beyond.

Swissmint Issues a New Limited-Edition Vreneli Coin

12/05/22: U.S. inflation stays at a 40-year high, defying expectations of a bigger drop, crypto and stocks fall, reacting to the U.S. inflation data. And more.

Weekly Digest: U.S. Inflation, Stocks, Crypto Crash

The end of Bretton Woods seems to be an essential reason behind the widening of the productivity-pay gap that reveals gold's influence as a source of stability.

What is the Productivity–Pay Gap?

A quick overview of the performance of gold versus some of the major commodities for the first half of 2020.

🔥 Gold VS Commodities 🔥

You read in the press that persistently high inflation has finally peaked and should be going down soon. But the latest CPI numbers show it might not be entirely true. Here’s why.

Has Inflation Peaked? Here's What You Need to Know to Understand Inflation

19/05/22: U.S. stocks post the biggest daily drop in almost two years, Sri Lanka default hints at troubles ahead for developing nations, E.U. slashes growth forecast. And more.

Weekly Digest: Dow Tumbles, Food Inflation Getting Worse

Since the start of 2022, the stock market has been on a wild ride, while gold was close to hitting a new record high in March. Which has performed better so far? We guess you already know.🙃

Gold Price Vs. Stock Market: 2022 Edition

While the Fed is taking a dovish stance, investors are fearing a real rise in inflation in the near future.

Is the Fed Moving Too Slow to Counter Inflation?

25/05/2022: U.S. stocks slumped again amid economic data, the global food crisis risks causing a “messy” migration in Europe, Bitcoin could fall to $8,000. And more.

Weekly Digest: Stocks Slump, ‘Messy’ Migration Risk in Europe

Have you been thinking of investing in platinum bars and coins? Here’s what you need to know about one of the world’s rarest precious metals.

Investing in Platinum: A Beginner’s Guide

02/06/22: The Eurozone inflation hits a new record high, JPMorgan Chase CEO warns of the economic hurricane, EU leaders agree to ban most Russian crude imports. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Eurozone Inflation, Economic Hurricane

09/06/22: The OECD has lowered its growth forecast for this year, Eurozone inflation is expected to peak, U.K. economy is facing stagnation. And more.

Weekly Digest: OECD Cuts Growth Forecast, EU Inflation to Peak

Central banks are rushing to raise interest rates to tackle rising consumer prices in Europe. There are a few things we can learn from them about fighting inflation.

How to Fight Inflation? The Central Bank Edition 

Thanks to GOLD AVENUE, Tibo InShape was able to enter the famous gold refinery MKS PAMP. Watch the video and follow Tibo in his discovery of gold!

Tibo InShape & GOLD AVENUE: visit of a gold refinery in Switzerland!

16/06/22: Fed announced a historic rate hike, a U.S. recession is looming, bitcoin is plunging, U.K. economy is shrinking, China’s contact with aliens. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Big Fed Hike, Recession Fears, Gold Could Soar

GOLD AVENUE’s CEO Alessandro Soldati was selected by Bilan magazine as one of French-speaking Switzerland's most promising young entrepreneurs.

Bilan Chooses GOLD AVENUE Among Switzerland’s Top Young Startups

If you are considering buying silver bars and coins, there are a few things you need to know first about one of the world’s most valuable and accessible precious metals.

Investing in Silver: A Beginner’s Guide

Country-specific guides to understand gold as an investment in 2021 from the World Gold Council.

The relevance of gold as a strategic asset: 2021

Famous precious metal skeptic buys gold as a hedge against accelerating inflation which he says is “reminiscent of the 1970s”.

Lifelong Gold Skeptic Makes Major U-Turn

23/06/22: The stock market dropped as recession fears grow, UK inflation hits a new 40-year high, Bitcoin could plunge to a low of $13,000. And more.

Weekly Digest: Stock Rally Fizzles, Recession Risk

While stocks and bitcoin went down sharply due to rising inflation and uncertain economic outlook, gold has retained its value, exactly when investors and savers needed it. 

Bitcoin, stocks, gold: What is the best investment today?

29/06/22: Morgan Stanley sees a mild recession coming to the Eurozone this year, G7 countries agree to ban gold imports from Russia, German inflation eases. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Eurozone Recession, Ban on Russian Gold

What does the future hold for gold? Here are the 4 trends that could make the yellow metal shine in the nearest future.

Is the price of gold going up next year? 4 main drivers explained

07/07/2022: Gold drops over 2% in a selloff sparked by a strong dollar, U.K.'s Johnson is expected to step down, higher interest rates are unlikely to solve the inflation problem. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Gold Inches Down, Johnson to Resign 

A gold hunt story that captivated thousands and inspired a decade-long obsession with the famous Forrest Fenn treasure.

The Mysterious Hunt for Forrest Fenn's Gold Treasure

14/07/22: U.S. inflation accelerates to 9.1%, Europe is on high alert over Russia’s gas squeeze, NASA reveals the most detailed pictures of deep space ever taken. And more.

Weekly Digest: U.S. Inflation Soars, Russia’s Gas Squeeze

Gold has been with us since pretty much the dawn of civilization, and yet there have been a number of harmful myths surrounding this precious metal.

5 Myths About Gold Investment

This is the incredible story of one of the biggest gold scandals in history which started in Canada and ended in the depths of the Borneo jungle.

The Biggest Gold Mining Scandal in History

As the Fed raises interest rates and Russia squeezes gas supplies to Europe, it looks like the global economy is slowly but surely drifting into a recession. Will it happen by the end of 2022, and what does it mean for gold? 

Is a Recession Coming in 2022? 

If you are a beginner investor, choosing the right time to buy physical gold and silver may not look like an easy task. But in reality, it’s quite simple. Especially if you know the right investment strategy.

Is It a Good Time to Buy Gold?

Is today’s rising inflation mimicking a time when a sudden jump in inflation took investors by surprise? Top economic historian Niall Ferguson might have the answer.