America has chosen its next leader and former President Donald Trump will once again reside in the White House for the next four years.  Below, we explore how this could affect the price of gold.

US Election: How Will Trump's Win Affect the Price of Gold?

GA News

The Spotlight

Newsdesk

Studies & research

. After the result was announced, the price of gold dropped – temporarily pausing the bullion’s record-breaking rally – and then rebounded. Despite these fluctuations, though, the 

long-term investment case for the precious metal is still strong

Below, we explore what has happened to gold since the US election – and why the future is still golden for this metal.

What happened to gold after Trump was re-elected?

a man with a suitcase looking at a question mark through magnifying glass

In the run-up to the election, political uncertainty helped to drive up the demand for – and the price of – gold. This is because 

the yellow metal is a widely recognised safe asset

. For example, when the polls showed Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck on 31st October – five days before the election – 

Following Trump’s election win, however, 

gold prices tumbled to $2,559.2 per ounce

 on 14th November before rebounding slightly. This is largely because the dollar became stronger, buoyed by predictions that Trump’s policies – like trade tariffs and tax cuts – would drive US economic growth.

Some price volatility is normal around the time of a significant political event. The graph below shows what happened to the key commodities of gold, crude and copper after the election. As our expert Nicky Shiels highlights, this is in line with what happened after Trump was last elected in 2016:

Asset performances since election of Trump

let’s look at why the price of gold briefly fell when Trump was elected once again:

Gold's negative correlation to the Dollar 

After the election, gold prices saw their biggest weekly decline in over three years. This is partly because expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed boosted the dollar.

When the dollar weakens, gold strengthens, and vice versa. This inverse relationship has been explained due to gold being primarily traded in US dollars. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially increasing demand and price. Also, 

gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation

, increasing in value as the purchasing power of the dollar declines.

Trump may be a controversial figure in global politics, but his election may have reduced immediate uncertainty around US policy direction. When uncertainty decreases, investors tend to turn away from gold, which leads to a drop in gold prices. However, 

this may not necessarily be the case for people who invest in gold as part of 

 Even though the price of gold may fluctuate in the short-term during political events, it tends to keep its value in the long run.

After Trump’s win, markets anticipated a continuation of pro-growth policies, such as deregulation and tax cuts. Again, this can cause some investors – but not all – to invest in the stock market instead of gold.

Additionally, stronger economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control inflation. When higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, investors tend to move funds into interest-bearing assets like bonds or savings accounts.

the price of gold is returning to higher levels

. So, the price drop can somewhat be seen as a knee-jerk reaction, rather than a reflection of the metal’s true value.

a man and a woman looking at a crystal ball with graphs

Since the election, the price of gold has since rebounded. 

As of 2nd December, it has settled to $2,640.64 

– and things are once again looking up for investors 👆 . So what will happen next for gold, as the US adjusts to another term under Trump?

Of course, the future remains to be seen. But during his campaign, Trump pledged to implement sweeping policy changes. Some of these could be positive for gold.

Some of Trump’s policies, such as universal tariffs, could increase the cost of goods broadly if enacted. This is inflationary, which tends to be good for gold. Additionally, 

he has a history of pressuring the Federal Reserve for lower rates – which is another positive for gold

 – and his fiscal policies lean towards a weaker dollar and substantial government spending.

That being said, some of his policies could be less beneficial for gold prices. Trump tends to have a pro-business mindset and his policies favour economic growth, so short-term gold investors may be more attracted to other assets like stocks. Also, lower corporate taxes and energy independence tend to drive demand for other investments like equities.

the price of gold isn’t just affected by US politics

. A range of other factors have a significant impact too.

Central banks, particularly those in emerging economies, are increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against economic uncertainty. In the first quarter of 2024, central banks bought a net 

 of gold – the strongest first quarter on record. Although it has slowed throughout the year, it still remains 

This demand drives the price up. Additionally, individual investors are still flocking to gold for long-term gains. The price of gold now is still considerably higher than it was around this time last year. For example, on 2nd December 2023 it was $2072.04 – whereas it is now $2,641.93 (4th December 2024).

And as always, because the metal is in limited supply, it holds its value.

Gold still has a solid reputation for offering a safer place for investors when things are shaky around the world. With the conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine  and elsewhere, and political tensions still high, gold will likely remain in demand. For example, on 20th November, gold prices rose to 

 after Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine expanding the conditions for using atomic weapons.

“The Trump win makes a Russian/Ukraine deal (that gives Russia the borders they want but with massive spending / funds to rebuild Ukraine) most likely. In one respect that argues for some unwind of geopolitical risk, but on the other leaves Europe in a more fragile/precarious situation. Given this US election outcome, and as America pulls back further from its leadership role, the missing superpower will leave a void and the basis for all this regional geopolitical chaos to largely continue. Thats supportive gold,” 

Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, says. 

Also, it’s important to bear in mind that gold has held its value throughout history because it is considered a safe haven asset. During unpredictable times, gold is less volatile than other assets – so it will always be in demand. So, gold can be considered a long-term savings solution.

‘Dollar-Cost Averaging’ (DCA) strategy

, means buying a certain amount of an asset at regular intervals, regardless of its price. This helps to protect investors from market fluctuations.

What do experts have to say about the price of gold?

a man sitting on a briefcase

If you’re thinking of investing in gold, or expanding your portfolio, the outlook is positive for the precious metal. What Trump’s presidential term brings – in terms of policies and foreign relations – remains to be seen. But 

factors that keep gold in demand, including central bank demand and global tensions, are expected to keep the price steady

Nicky Shiels says the dramatic price we’ve seen throughout 2024 (in the pre-election period) may slow down briefly, but overall, the outlook still looks strong for gold.

” has now been removed because there is no uncertainty over who will become president.

US political fear has been taken out… and there's just ‘no new bad news’ for gold to capitalise on

So until this Trump trade honeymoon phase runs its course, gold and silver are amidst repricing to a less bullish trajectory.

Additionally, while inflation is likely to be coming in the future (which is generally good for gold) it’s currently being countered by the combination of a stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates.

However, gold remains a vital option for investors seeking protection during uncertain times. So, there is still potential for a return to higher levels.

The run-up to the election and Trump’s win may have created waves in the market, but ultimately, the fundamentals of the gold bull market are still strong.

Instead of focusing on short-term price movements, it’s important to remember that 

gold has held its value throughout history

 and will likely continue to do so. So check out 

GOLD AVENUE’s selection of investment-grade gold

Gold offers several powerful advantages as a store of value. Discover why more and more investors are turning to this precious metal.

What are the advantages of gold compared to other investments?

A look at the strong changes in demand in the gold sector y-o-y.

A Shift in Gold Demand Trends

Good thing central banks can't print gold. 😉

21.9% Annual Inflation... and Counting

Despite slowing down, the frenzy around silver has kept prices up, and demand for physical bars and coins strong, while doubts over the state of the silver stocks emerge. Is Silver Setting the Stage for a Breakout?

Is Silver Setting the Stage for a Breakout?

We are thrilled to announce that our CEO Alessandro Soldati was invited for an open and lively discussion on a popular YouTube channel Frugalisme et Liberte Financiere.

How to Buy Physical Gold Online in 2022?

17/02/22: The European Central Bank could raise interest rates in 2022, the gold price goes up as tensions over Ukraine resurface, Switzerland lifts most Covid-19 restrictions. And more.

Weekly Digest: ECB Rate Hikes, Gold Up on Ukraine Tensions

Choosing between gold and silver: A comparison to help you decide which metal might be right for you.

Should You Buy Gold or Silver?

Reddit and the Wall Street Silver crowd are planning a new #Silversqueeze. With more coordination and hindsight, will they succeed in rising the silver price? 

#Silversqueeze 2.0?                         

The Federal Reserve’s inflation goals are getting risky and could cause the rate to overheat dangerously if they were to push it too hard.

The Fed’s Dangerous Game

Meet GOLD AVENUE CEO, Alessandro Soldati, in our first Q&A video session!

Q&A with our CEO - Alessandro Soldati

The Fed desperately wants higher inflation that would exceed its 2% target. Will the ECB follow the lead? It looks like it. 

Does the European Central Bank Want High Inflation?

24/02/22: Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the S&P is in a correction for the first time since the 2020 Wall Street plunge, gold hits a 20-month high. And more. 

Weekly digest: Ukraine Crisis, Markets Shaken, Gold’s Up

Russia’s decision to remove the US dollar assets from its sovereign wealth fund and partially replace them by gold boosts the yellow metal’s importance as a strategic asset.

Russia's New Move on Gold

After yet another central bank starts considering negative interest rates, we’re taking a look at how unlimited debt can impact physical gold investment.

Is Unlimited Debt Good for Gold?

World markets have taken a hit as the Russian invasion of Ukraine spooked investors around the globe. Here’s what you can do right now to protect your investment portfolio and gold savings.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: What Impact on Your Savings?

You probably noticed certain industries and communities aren’t bouncing back as quickly as others during times of recession or economic crisis. That’s what the K-shaped recovery is all about.

What the K-Shaped Recovery Means for Gold

03/03/22: Markets are on a wild rollercoaster ride, Eurozone inflation at a record high, Russia intensifies its invasion of Ukraine, gold proves itself as a safe haven. And more.

Weekly digest: inflation rising, Russia sanctions, gold gains

You want to start investing but you don't know where to start? Here is a beginner’s guide to investing.

How to Start Investing in 2023? Here's What You Need to Know

The #silversqueeze movement took the investment world by storm and has the potential of shaking up the silver market. Will it be here for the long term?

#silversqueeze

Here’s a rare sneak peek into one of the world’s biggest gold refineries. 

How Do You Make Gold Bars?

10/03/22: Gold and palladium hit a record high, oil records its worst day since November, Biden signs an executive order on crypto. And more. 

Weekly digest: Metals on the Rise, Oil Drops, Crypto Order

In 2021, central banks continued buying gold, with emerging countries stepping up as key net buyers. Do you wonder why? Here’s what you need to know.

Central Bank Gold Buying Explained

With inflation soaring in Europe and the U.S, learn how to navigate higher consumer prices from this great personal finance video from Sorelle Amore.

5 Ways to Protect Your Wealth From Inflation

17/03/22: The Fed has raised interest rates for the 1st time since 2018, one of Brazil’s biggest funds goes for gold, E.U.'s rethinking gas supplies. And more.

Weekly Digest: Fed’s 1st Rate Hike, Gold in Demand

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, investors rushed to gold, the world’s oldest safe-haven asset, pushing its price to a new record. Why did this happen? Here’s what you need to know. 

Investor Gold Demand is Booming Right Now: Here's Why 

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon possibly made the biggest monetary error in history. A video from Libre & Riche will tell you why.

All You Need to Know About the World’s Greatest Monetary Catastrophe

24/07/22: The U.K. hit by the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, Powell finally admits inflation is “much too high”, European stocks drop. And more.

Weekly Digest: Cost of Living Crisis, Inflation Problem

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate hike since 2018. What could this mean for the gold price? Here’s what you need to know. 

How Interest Rate Hikes Affect the Gold Price

31/03/22: European inflation soars to new heights, Russia resumes gold purchases, no breakthrough seen in Ukraine war despite renewed peace talks. And more. 

Weekly Digest: EU Inflation Runs Hot, Ukraine Peace Talks

It seems that the ongoing US presidential election has not changed the situation in the gold market so far as the macro backdrop remains quite favorable to the yellow metal.

Trump + Biden = Gold?

Do you want to buy gold bars but are not sure where to start? Here’s what you need to know to build your precious metals portfolio in a smart way.

How Do You Buy Physical Gold Bars? 

The backdrop of global inflation in the U.S. and Europe was already worrying. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is making the situation even worse, including sending gas prices soaring to record levels. Here’s what you need to know.

Here’s How Rising Gas Prices and Inflation Fuel Each Other

07/04/22: More and more people are worried about rising consumer prices, experts think the U.S. recession is inevitable, cryptocurrencies are facing some privacy issues. And more.

Weekly Digest: Inflation Worries, U.S. Recession

It looks like stagflation could be here soon. Here’s what you need to know to understand the economic phenomenon that stifled growth through the 1970s.

What Is Stagflation and Why Should We Worry About It?

14/4/22: U.S. inflation hit 8.5% in March, the highest since 1981, EU ban on Russian gas could spark a sharp recession in Germany, Ukraine peace talks “at a dead end.” And more.

Weekly Digest: U.S. Inflation at 40-Year High, German Recession Risk 

Leading world banks say we should get ready for a new recession shock. What does it mean exactly, and what investments might be the best place to stash your hard-earned money?

Recession Risk is Rising, Economists Say. Here's What It Means for Investors

21/04/2022: The IMF cuts its global economic growth forecast, UN says the war in Ukraine could create a global food crisis “beyond anything seen since World War II,” Macron and Le Pen fight for the presidency. And more.

Weekly Digest: IMF Cuts Growth Forecast, Hunger Threat

If you are a parent, you probably want to find the best way to set your kids up for financial success. Here’s how your gold savings will help you start building their lifelong wealth.

3 Ways Gold Savings Can Benefit Your Children and Family

Easy is always right. Especially when it comes to buying precious metals. If you still don’t know what’s the easiest way to buy gold, you’re in the right place.

The Easiest Way to Buy Gold and Precious Metals

28/4/22: Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the Fed is set for more aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation, Musk seals the deal to buy Twitter. And more.

Weekly Digest: Russia’s Gas Cutoff, Musk’s Twitter Deal

If your children are the lucky ones to get a hoard of gold as an inheritance, there are 4 things you should do before passing it on to them.

4 Things to Remember When Buying Gold for Your Children

04/05/22: The Fed is set to fight inflation with the fastest rate hikes in decades, Fitch trims China’s 2022 growth forecast amid Covid-19 lockdowns, two Argentinian banks will allow crypto trading. And more.

Weekly Digest: Fed Rate Hike, Cuts to China’s Growth Forecast 

Here are the 4 handy tips you can immediately put into practice when buying physical gold for the first time.

How Do You Buy Gold? A Beginner’s Guide

Swissmint made history as they issued their first-ever 50-franc Vreneli gold coin on May 11, 2022, making a very special coin even more popular in Switzerland and beyond.

Swissmint Issues a New Limited-Edition Vreneli Coin

12/05/22: U.S. inflation stays at a 40-year high, defying expectations of a bigger drop, crypto and stocks fall, reacting to the U.S. inflation data. And more.

Weekly Digest: U.S. Inflation, Stocks, Crypto Crash

The end of Bretton Woods seems to be an essential reason behind the widening of the productivity-pay gap that reveals gold's influence as a source of stability.

What is the Productivity–Pay Gap?

A quick overview of the performance of gold versus some of the major commodities for the first half of 2020.

🔥 Gold VS Commodities 🔥

You read in the press that persistently high inflation has finally peaked and should be going down soon. But the latest CPI numbers show it might not be entirely true. Here’s why.

Has Inflation Peaked? Here's What You Need to Know to Understand Inflation

19/05/22: U.S. stocks post the biggest daily drop in almost two years, Sri Lanka default hints at troubles ahead for developing nations, E.U. slashes growth forecast. And more.

Weekly Digest: Dow Tumbles, Food Inflation Getting Worse

Since the start of 2022, the stock market has been on a wild ride, while gold was close to hitting a new record high in March. Which has performed better so far? We guess you already know.🙃

Gold Price Vs. Stock Market: 2022 Edition

While the Fed is taking a dovish stance, investors are fearing a real rise in inflation in the near future.

Is the Fed Moving Too Slow to Counter Inflation?

25/05/2022: U.S. stocks slumped again amid economic data, the global food crisis risks causing a “messy” migration in Europe, Bitcoin could fall to $8,000. And more.

Weekly Digest: Stocks Slump, ‘Messy’ Migration Risk in Europe

Have you been thinking of investing in platinum bars and coins? Here’s what you need to know about one of the world’s rarest precious metals.

Investing in Platinum: A Beginner’s Guide

02/06/22: The Eurozone inflation hits a new record high, JPMorgan Chase CEO warns of the economic hurricane, EU leaders agree to ban most Russian crude imports. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Eurozone Inflation, Economic Hurricane

09/06/22: The OECD has lowered its growth forecast for this year, Eurozone inflation is expected to peak, U.K. economy is facing stagnation. And more.

Weekly Digest: OECD Cuts Growth Forecast, EU Inflation to Peak

Central banks are rushing to raise interest rates to tackle rising consumer prices in Europe. There are a few things we can learn from them about fighting inflation.

How to Fight Inflation? The Central Bank Edition 

Thanks to GOLD AVENUE, Tibo InShape was able to enter the famous gold refinery MKS PAMP. Watch the video and follow Tibo in his discovery of gold!

Tibo InShape & GOLD AVENUE: visit of a gold refinery in Switzerland!

16/06/22: Fed announced a historic rate hike, a U.S. recession is looming, bitcoin is plunging, U.K. economy is shrinking, China’s contact with aliens. And more. 

Weekly Digest: Big Fed Hike, Recession Fears, Gold Could Soar

GOLD AVENUE’s CEO Alessandro Soldati was selected by Bilan magazine as one of French-speaking Switzerland's most promising young entrepreneurs.

Bilan Chooses GOLD AVENUE Among Switzerland’s Top Young Startups

If you are considering buying silver bars and coins, there are a few things you need to know first about one of the world’s most valuable and accessible precious metals.

Investing in Silver: A Beginner’s Guide

Country-specific guides to understand gold as an investment in 2021 from the World Gold Council.

The relevance of gold as a strategic asset: 2021

Famous precious metal skeptic buys gold as a hedge against accelerating inflation which he says is “reminiscent of the 1970s”.

Lifelong Gold Skeptic Makes Major U-Turn

23/06/22: The stock market dropped as recession fears grow, UK inflation hits a new 40-year high, Bitcoin could plunge to a low of $13,000. And more.

Weekly Digest: Stock Rally Fizzles, Recession Risk

While stocks and bitcoin went down sharply due to rising inflation and uncertain economic outlook, gold has retained its value, exactly when investors and savers needed it. 

Bitcoin, stocks, gold: What is the best investment today?

29/06/22: Morgan Stanley sees a mild recession coming to the Eurozone this year, G7 countries agree to ban gold imports from Russia, German inflation eases. And more. 